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» 21.07.09 Exports will shrink more slowly in 2nd half of year: KRC |
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21.07.09 Exports will shrink more slowly in 2nd half of year: KRC
Source: TNA
BANGKOK, July 21 (TNA) – Thailand’s exports in the second half of this
year are expected to shrink at a slower pace than those in the first
half due to economic recovery in many regions, particularly Asia,
according to the Kasikorn Research Center.
The leading think
tank reported that exports contracted 23.5 per cent in the first half
of this year, but they are expected to shrink more slowly by around
6-14 per cent in the second half.
For the whole year, exports are likely to contract 14.5-19 per cent.
The
slower pace of contraction is expected to be reinforced by the gradual
economic recovery of several countries in various regions.
For instance, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China resumed its growth of up to 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2009.
In
the United States, there are signs that the economy shrank at a slower
pace in the second quarter this year and is forecast to resume growth
in the third quarter, but the country will still experience
unemployment, with consumers spending with great caution.
Overall,
KRC said, economic recovery seems to be clearer in many countries,
which will contribute to an improvement in the global economy and
international trade.
An interesting issue to be monitored is
the path of economic recovery of emerging economies because they are
expected to play a key role in driving the global economy in the future.
Asian emerging economies led by China, India, Africa, and the Middle East will recover first and enjoy sound growth next year.
In
particular, the Chinese economy is likely to overtake the Japanese
economy and become the second largest economy of the globe.
Once
the world economy turns to pick up, KRC suggested the Thai public and
private sectors pay greater attention to trade with the emerging
economies where the demand for products from Thailand continues
growing.
Risk factors that need be monitored include the
fragile global economy, unemployment, stronger baht, and the A(H1N1)
virus pandemic. (TNA)
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